Details of today's prediction 
The prediction for each day is based on a year of data prior to the day. The following figures illustrate the process of inference for today's prediction. Figure 1 shows the year of data as a plot of event peak flux versus time (top panel). The rate of flaring is modelled as a piecewise constant Poisson process, and the Bayesian blocks procedure (Scargle 1998, ApJ 504, 405418) is applied to the data to determine the piecewise intervals, i.e. periods of time during which the rate is approximately constant. The resulting sequence of intervals and rates is shown in the bottom panel of Figure 1. The last Bayesian block describes the current rate, and the previous blocks give information about how the rate might be expected to vary.


Figure 1: Top panel: Year of flaring used in prediction. Bottom: Bayesian blocks decomposition of that data. 


Figure 2: Top panel: Differential distribution of year of events in peak flux. Bottom: Cumulative distribution in peak flux. 


Figure 3: Top panel: Posterior distribution for MX events.
Bottom: Posterior distribution for X events.

It should be noted that these predictions are made using only past event
statistics. As such they may be considered as a kind of minimal, or
"baseline" prediction. A variety of observations are available of
physical parameters known to associated with flaring, and
in principle these additional observations could be used to improve
upon the event statistics prediction.


Main flare prediction page
Summary of all predictions made to date Automatic check of the reliability of the predictions Prediction for 4 November 2003 A test of the method on historical data Links to other pages related to flare prediction Mike Wheatland's home page 
Acknowledgement: The predictions given here are based on information from the Space Environment Center, Boulder, CO, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), US Dept. of Commerce. 

Page maintained by m.wheatland@physics.usyd.edu.au  Page last updated Wednesday, 01Dec2004 15:38:23 AEDT 