Figure 1 shows a summary of all predictions made to date, together with the observed history of flaring. The top panel shows observed events, as a plot of peak flux versus time, and the bottom panel shows the prediction probabilities for M-X events (diamonds) and X events (triangles) versus time.
Tables of the predictions given to date on these web pages are also
available. Here are the predictions for each
day for M-X events. The linked table has three columns: the date and
time of the prediction (which is the date and time of creation of the
last NOAA Event List used in the prediction), the prediction probability,
and its uncertainty.
Here, in the same format, is the table
for X event predictions.
Additional information:
More detail on how today's predictions were made
Automatic check of the reliability of the predictions
Prediction for 4 November 2003
A test of the method on historical data
Links to other pages related to flare prediction
Mike Wheatland's home page
Acknowledgement:
The predictions given here are based on
information from the Space Environment Center, Boulder, CO,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), US Dept. of
Commerce.