Summary of predictions made to date

Figure 1 shows a summary of all predictions made to date, together with the observed history of flaring. The top panel shows observed events, as a plot of peak flux versus time, and the bottom panel shows the prediction probabilities for M-X events (diamonds) and X events (triangles) versus time.

Figure 1: Top panel: Observed flares versus time, for the duration of operation of these web pages. Bottom: Predictions for M-X events (diamonds) and X events (triangles) versus time.

Tables of the predictions given to date on these web pages are also available. Here are the predictions for each day for M-X events. The linked table has three columns: the date and time of the prediction (which is the date and time of creation of the last NOAA Event List used in the prediction), the prediction probability, and its uncertainty. Here, in the same format, is the table for X event predictions.

Additional information:

Main flare prediction page
More detail on how today's predictions were made
Automatic check of the reliability of the predictions
Prediction for 4 November 2003
A test of the method on historical data
Links to other pages related to flare prediction
Mike Wheatland's home page

Acknowledgement: The predictions given here are based on information from the Space Environment Center, Boulder, CO, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), US Dept. of Commerce.

Page maintained by Page last updated Wednesday, 01-Dec-2004 15:38:44 AEDT