Research in this area will develop skills (computation, numerical analysis,
modelling, visualisation, data analysis, statistical techniques) which
are highly transferrable and attractive to employers.
Candidates will have the
opportunity to collaborate with experts at world class institutions with
whom I maintain ongoing research partnerships,
including Lockheed Martin and Stanford University.
My research is published in high-impact peer reviewed journals
such as the Astrophysical Journal, the premier US journal in the field.
You can achieve research at this level!
Bayesian prediction of solar flares
In 1859 a gigantic solar flare erupted on the Sun, disabling telegraph
communications on the Earth (an entertaining account is given in
Stuart Clark's book The Sun Kings). Solar flares are magnetic
explosions in the solar atmosphere that affect our local
"space weather," producing dangerous energetic particle populations
and disruptive electrical current systems in our local space
environment. The "Carrington
flare" of 1859 is believed to have been the largest solar flare of
the last 150 years. Such events are a cause for concern: a recent study
(Odenwald, Green, and Taylor 2006) suggests that a Carrington event
at the next solar maximum could incur US$70 billion in lost revenue.
Large solar flares appear to occur at random, but there are many
indicators that
flares might occur. Can we combine these indicators to make a more accurate
forecast? What limits the predictability of flares? This project will apply
state-of-the-art techniques from Bayesian inference to these key problems.
Skills learnt: Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian inference,
prediction methods, numerical methods, data
analysis, visualization techniques
References: Wheatland, M.S. 2005, A statistical solar flare forecast
method, Space Weather Vol. 3, No. 7, S07003 doi:10.1029/2004SW000131
(past work)
Large solar flares - random or not?
Large solar flares influence our local "space weather," and
are capable of damaging satellite electronics, and posing radiation
risks to astronauts and crews on polar commercial aircraft flights.
Flares -- in particular the largest events -- appear to occur randomly in
sunspot regions, although the mean rate of flares varies with the
number of sunspots, which follows an 11-year cycle. But how random are
these events? It has been claimed that they are "non-Poisson," i.e.
exhibit anomalous correlations in occurrence times, compared with a
random process. This project will investigate this basic question.
References: Hudson, H.S. 2007, The unpredictability of the most
energetic solar events, The Astrophysical Journal Letters 663, L45
Skills learnt: Programming, data analysis, numerical methods,
statistics
Feel free to discuss these and other research opportunities
with me, in person or via e-mail.
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